Per our nERD-based power rankings, the clash could be pretty interesting. We have the Jets pegged as the 7th-best team overall, while the Jaguars rank 14th. The Jets are 2.5-point road favorites on FanDuel Sportsbook, and the over/under is set at 36.5 points.
Let’s dive in and see if we can uncover any interesting betting angles for this contest.
Breaking Down the Matchup
After losing his starting job to Mike White, Zach Wilson is back under center due to White’s injury. As you’d expect, our advanced metrics aren’t kind to Wilson this season. In terms of Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back, Wilson’s clip of -0.02 ranks 27th out of the 36 high-volume quarterbacks.
On the Jags’ side, Trevor Lawrence has been outstanding, logging a mark of 0.20, which ranks him sixth-best amongst the same group of passers. He’s looking like the star he was expected to be.
For the Jets, Zonovan Knight and Michael Carter have been shouldering the running-back load as of late with Breece Hall on the shelf. Knight is taking a lot of the early-down work while Carter handles more of the pass-game volume. Knight had run for at least 69 yards in three straight prior to a 23-yard dud last week.
Travis Etienne missed all of last year for Jacksonville but has been good in 2022. He’s coming close to eclipsing 1,000 yards (917 rushing yards), and he’s been solid with 5.0 yards per attempt.
While the Jags have the edge on offense, the Jets have an advantage when it comes to defense.
Our metrics rank Gang Green third in overall D, including sixth versus the pass and fifth against the run. Meanwhile, Jacksonville ranks sixth-worst in overall defense, including third-worst against the pass.
The Betting Numbers
The Jets are 2.5-point home favorites, and the total has been set at 36.5 points. The total was never going to be high for this game, but the weather is the reason it’s this low. It’s supposed to be rainy and windy.
Our algorithm sees this as a tight contest, projecting a 25.4 to 23.0 win for the Jets. That’s right in line with the listed spread.
We do see value in the over, though, forecasting it to win out 81.6% of the time. It may be scary to take the over in a Zach Wilson game where the weather is an issue, but our model loves it.
In the prop market, backing the over on Knight’s rushing yards looks pretty price. It’s set at 60.5 rushing yards, with -110 on the over.
Knight has looked good this season, and given the weather and the potential for the Jets to see a positive game script, Knight might get big-time volume today. We project Knight for 75.8 rushing yards on 17.5 attempts. Knight has gone over 60.5 yards in three of his four contests. He’s also +170 to lead all players in rushing yards tonight.
This content was originally published here.