• Bet o46.5: Plenty of scenarios point toward this game going over the 47 point total, and with a little line shopping, we can find an even better number.
• With PFF Greenline just missing out on value at the current +10.5 number, this looks like a no-bet.
• Bet A.J. Dillon o38.5 rush/rec yards: With a massive correction to this prop number, after closing at 57.5 last week and that being his low-point through the first seven weeks of the season.
• Our prime-time previews pull all the key modeling numbers and simulated outcomes from PFF’s betting tools, including PFF NFL Greenline and the Player Props tool, which use top-down machine learning models backed by PFF’s exclusive data to derive value when compared to the betting market.
Click here for more PFF tools:
• This spread added a full touchdown to the preseason number: With Buffalo very much living up to the preseason hype as Super Bowl favorites. Green Bay, on the other hand, is in complete disarray, and outside of Denver, might be the most disappointing team through the first seven weeks of the season.
• Packers are a poor offensive football team: There might not be a bigger buy-low candidate in the NFL, but we are hitting the stretch of the season when teams are becoming what their record indicates. Green Bay ranks 22nd in EPA per dropback, with the lowest percentage in the NFL of targets 5+ yards beyond the line of scrimmage to receivers with open separation. It’s safe to say losing Davante Adams mattered to this offense — and now the Packers’ pass catchers must figure out how to separate quicker facing off against the NFL’s second-ranked pass rush.
• Green Bay’s chances of covering might hinge more on its defense than offense: Rashan Gary is listed as questionable, but after getting in a limited practice should be set to play a full complement of snaps. His ability to generate pressure for a unit that ranks sixth in pressure rate this season, will be the determining factor for Green Bay covering. The Packers’ coverage unit has occasionally been labeled as a letdown, but they hold top ten unit rankings in both opponent-adjusted grade and 0-to-100 grade.
• If the Packers offense continues to perform at a below-average EPA level: It would take a huge EPA swing from a defensive or special teams touchdown — and even then there’s no certainty the Packers cover the spread. With PFF Greenline just missing out on value at the current +10.5 number, this looks like a no-bet.
• Still, plenty of scenarios point toward this game going over the 47 point total: And with a little line shopping, we can find an even better number
Bet Over 46.5 (-115)
Bet Gameplan: Playable to 47 (-105)
Bet A.J. Dillon Over 38.5 rushing/receiving Yards (-110)
Bet Gameplan: Playable to 40
• Market overcorrection: Dillon’s seen a massive correction to this prop number, after closing at 57.5 last week and that being his low-point through the first seven weeks of the season. This is very much a reaction to one week’s usage, after Dillon played 53.1% of offensive snaps through Weeks 1-6. Last week swung dramatically with a 29.1% snap percentage, and running a route on only 26.2% of dropbacks. His team rush attempt percentage was also the lowest it’s been all season.
• Green Bay’s pass-catching situation is dicey: With the top two receivers, Randall Cobb and Allen Lazard out. We should see a lot of manufactured targets to Aaron Jones once again, but if there aren’t a few easy touches for Dillon mixed in, then it’s an indictment on the play calling more than Dillon the player. As much as it doesn’t feel great to buy-low on the Packers offense, Dillon specifically sets up as the likely benefactor that’s seen way too much correction to the downside. On Sunday night, expect him to swing back somewhat from a usage standpoint and be one of the better and more dynamic options for this Packers team to move the football.
Bet Aaron Rodgers Over 1.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Bet Gameplan: Playable to -120
• Green Bay Grit: With the pass-catching issues plaguing the Packers’ offense, one thing that’s seen an uptick is Aaron Rodgers designed rush attempts. He has at least one in 5/7 games this season, but Rodgers has only gone over this prop number in one game this year. Facing off against a high-octane offense in primetime, expect Rodgers to resort to any means necessary to move the football, which should result in a decent run for a first down. The Bills’ pass rush is another reason to expect an additional uptick in opportunity for Rodgers on this player prop, as I return to my roots for a classic quarterback rushing prop on Sunday night football.
DERIVATIVE BETS & SAME-GAME PARLAY
I typically don’t send on real longshot plays, but with Halloween around the corner, let’s expect things to get weird on Sunday night.
• A.J. Dillon’s uptick in receiving usage: If the Packers fall behind early, a lot of that production could come on shell coverage in the screen game. If Dillon breaks a decent one, he should be able to get over an alternate 24+ receiving yardage number on BetMGM.
• PFF’s player prop tool likes Stefon Diggs to also go over 6.5 receptions: Aas he should move around enough in this matchup to avoid the majority of snaps against Jaire Alexander. He’s the clear mismatch to target in that scenario, and should be Josh Allen’s preferred spot to move the chains. Allen to Digg’s has been the spot to break pressure situations, and against a quality Packers front four, should be the focal point in these high-leverage situations.
• If we’re expecting a rejuvenated Rodgers: It’s the real long-shot leg, but a goal-line sneak could be the exclamation point to announce he’s back. Bettors who are more risk-averse might prefer only taking the first two legs, but for the real dice roll, fold in Rodgers to find paydirt.
BetMGM OGP Build (+12500)
• A.J. Dillon 24+ receiving yards
• Aaron Rodgers anytime TD
A $20 BET ON A THREE-LEG PARLAY WITH DILLON 24+, DIGGS 8+, AND RODGERS TD WOULD NET $2,520 AT BETMGM
This content was originally published here.