• Bet Cowboys QB Cooper Rush u0.5 INT (+110 BetMGM) at Eagles: No. 2 among starting quarterbacks in turnover-worthy play rate this season, behind only Tom Brady at 1.6%.
• Bet Eagles TE Dallas Goedert u4.5 receptions (-135 BetMGM): Goedert clearly 3rd in target pecking order; Dallas fifth in PFF coverage grade, first on opposing TE targets.
• New users who bet $10 or more at BetMGM will receive a free year’s subscription to PFF+ — a $79.99 value.
Last updated: Sun. Oct. 16, 4:00 p.m.
Estimated reading time: 4 mins
• Our prime-time previews pull all the key modeling numbers and simulated outcomes from PFF’s betting tools, including PFF NFL Greenline and the player props tool, which use top-down machine learning models backed by PFF’s exclusive data to derive value when compared to the betting market.
With the fleeting fantasy of Dak Prescott playing finally put to rest, this spread continues to trickle away from the Cowboys as we head toward kickoff. After sitting at a pick ‘em in the preseason, the lookahead line of -4.5 led us into a range this week up to -5 to -6.5. With leading books now at a plus price for the Cowboys at +6.5, it looks at least plausible that a +7 prints somewhere.
PFF Greenline leans in the Cowboys direction, finding 1.7% value at a -110 +6.5 offering. The moneyline also entices, but it’s not necessarily in the typical way most handicap this game to play out.
Conventional wisdom points toward the Cowboys needing to win this matchup with their defense, and we should expect a low-scoring game if Dallas covers the spread (and even comes close to winning outright). But this line of thinking looks overcorrected in the market, with the 42 point total low based on this top-down method.
Philadelphia’s offense comes into this matchup as the fifth-best from an EPA perspective and bumps up to third when focused only on dropbacks. It’s entirely possible the Eagles are just too difficult to slow down, or if the Cowboys make a big defensive impact it results in a quick and easy six points. With this as the likely scenario, the game market’s priced too short, we can look to other offerings on BetMGM for the best betting approaches.
Plus-price bets typically offer some value, and one that looks likely based on our expectation is the ‘Yes’ on if both teams score 2 or more touchdowns? This could easily happen and we still lose one of the other directions Greenline is signaling for us in this matchup. For that reason it is my favorite approach to betting the game outcome Greenline is projecting.
Bet: Will both teams score 2 or more touchdowns? Yes +100 BetMGM
Dallas Goedert — Under 4.5 Receptions (-135 BetMGM)
Philadelphia has a plethora of quality pass-catching options this season, with Dallas Goedert clearly third in the pecking order for targets through the first five weeks of the season. Volume could be on the low end for Philadelphia given the performance of the Cowboys pass rush this season, but Jalen Hurts pass completion prop sits at the median for his first five weeks.
Outside of the volume reasons, there are also matchup-specific reasons why Goedert could fall short of this prop number. Dallas ranks fifth in PFF coverage grade through five weeks, but that jumps to the league’s best unit when an opposing tight end is targeted. Leighton Vander Esch grades well-above average in coverage this season, and the return of Jayron Kearse should help the interior coverage for the Cowboys even further.
Given matchup considerations and overall volume potentially dropping off, Goedert to go under 4.5 receptions looks like one of the best player props on Sunday night.
Cooper Rush Under 0.5 Interceptions +110
Rush ranks 2nd among starting quarterbacks in turnover-worthy play rate this season, behind only Tom Brady at 1.6%. He’s been incredibly aware of penalty situations, with his only two interceptions coming on defensive penalty plays. The plus price on this offering is too much value to ignore, especially since it fits with the top-down modeling narrative suggested by Greenline. Rush may not win the game for the Cowboys on Sunday night, but he almost assuredly won’t lose it for them either.
Ben went 0-3 in his Week 6 TNF preview, bringing his season record to 25-40 (-7.56 units).
This content was originally published here.