The first-ever Thursday Night Football on Amazon Prime kicks off with a matchup between high-octane AFC West rivals. The Los Angeles Chargers visit the Kansas City Chiefs in a critical Week 2 showdown. Given the visibility of the game, sportsbooks are offering a ton of same game parlay options and promotions for bettors.
Below, we’ll look at the top offerings from FanDuel Sportsbook and BetMGM to see if you should be betting their promotions. Also, we’ll lay out some SGP routes and strategy you can use to increase your chances of winning.
$10,000 NFL Pick’em Pool! Compete for huge prizes by entering our FREE season-long NFL contest. It’s not too late to play!
Chargers at Chiefs Odds
Chargers at Chiefs Preview
Last time we saw the Chargers and Chiefs play, it was at SoFi Stadium on a Thursday night and the game had a thrilling overtime finish. The Chiefs came out on top 34-28 behind 410 passing yards from Patrick Mahomes, 191 of which went to Travis Kelce. In the other matchup last year, Kelce posted 101 receiving yards (24 total targets).
Coming off a strong Week 1 (nine targets, 121 receiving yards), it’s clear Kelce is the top pass catcher in Kansas City. It’s no surprise he’s the center of a SGP boost offered by BetMGM that we’ll look at later.
On the other side, Justin Herbert didn’t crack 300 yards in either game against KC, but he did score seven total touchdowns in those two games (six passing). When these two teams play, the scoreboard gets a workout, leading to a point total set for this game.
When you talk games with a high point total, you’re of course thinking about betting over on player props.
Instead of placing standard same game parlays this week, let’s take a look at some promotions offered by sportsbooks and weigh in whether or not they’re beneficial to bettors.
FanDuel’s No Sweat Same Game Parlay Promo
You can find this promo either under the “Promotions” tab at FanDuel Sportsbook or under the NFL tab. Either way, a risk-free bet is an exciting proposition. Bettors have to string together at least a three-leg parlay (at least +400 odds) and, if it loses, FanDuel will refund you in free bet credits. If your parlay wins, you reap the rewards and likely head to the steakhouse Friday night.
With the odds requirement, you’re looking at a bet that has under a 20% implied win probability. This isn’t normally advised for standard parlays, but when it’s backed by a risk-free promo, you can roll the dice.
Should You Bet This?
Of course you should– it’s risk-free. As you add legs to your parlay, your success rate drops drastically. However, with the promise of a free bet refund if your parlay loses, yes you should definitely put a flier in. If you hit, you reap the rewards!
BetMGM’s Same Game Parlay Promo Offerings
BetMGM has a series of One Game Parlay offerings for set prices. It’s always worth cross-referencing the odds placed on these predetermined parlays to ensure you’re really getting +EV before you bet it.
Travis Kelce to score 1+ TD, 10+ receptions, 90+ receiving yards (+400)
You can’t replicate this exact parlay at another book, but you can come close. FanDuel doesn’t allow receptions to be bundled into their SGP offerings and DraftKings doesn’t offer the exact alternate totals. At DK, you can parlay Kelce to score a TD (-145), have over 84.5 yards (+100), and 9+ receptions (+185) for a +330 price tag. This has a 3.26% higher implied win rate at the cost of 17.5% of the winnings.
If you bump up the DK alt. lines to 11+ receptions and 95+ yards (one reception for five yards over BetMGM’s promo), you arrive at +675. The implied win rate drops over 11% when crossing these thresholds.
Justin Herbert to throw for 300+ yards and 3+ TDs, Chargers to cover +3.5 (+500)
The logic on this parlay checks out– if Herbert is firing on that kind of level, the Chargers are more likely to win. This is just a pre-bundled parlay and doing the same legs at DraftKings Sportsbook results in the same +500 price (16.67% implied win probability). Unfortunately, you can’t parlay in passing touchdowns (and alt. TD lines aren’t offered) at FanDuel.
Patrick Mahomes to throw for 300+ yards and 3+ TDs, Chiefs to win by 4+ points (+310)
This parlay is offered at a 15-cent boost from if it were parlayed separately at DraftKings Sportsbook. This is another combination that offers positive correlation. If Mahomes posts that kind of stat line, the Chiefs are more likely to win by more points. This is also buying the Chiefs at their lowest number (-3.5), opposed to their current number at .
At this juncture, a half-point offers some good value, as four points has a 7% push rate in the NFL; essentially, you’re buying seven cents on this bet. If you look at KC’s highest number, 4.5, you’re buying a whole point here.
Should You Bet Any Of These?
None of BetMGM’s parlays offer outstanding +EV if you take that route. Really, they’re just bundling parlays together and selling them to you. At the very least, these parlays do have positive correlation and some sense can be made of them.
Since FanDuel doesn’t offer most of the legs BetMGM does, these parlays are certainly worth a look if that’s your betting style. Keep in mind, every leg of the parlay severely reduces your chances at success. Ultimately though, if you’re going to bet a same game parlay, you’re better off using FanDuel’s risk-free promotion.
Check back each week for TNF same game parlay strategy during the NFL season.
Follow TheLines on Twitter
The post Same Game Parlay Betting: Chargers Chiefs Thursday Night Football appeared first on The Lines.
This content was originally published here.