Rams Vs. Bills DraftKings Prop Bets: Will Week 1 Thursday Night Football Be More Defensive Than Expected?

Remember when there was no football? Well remember no longer. It’s time for Thursday Night Football, and if you’re making Los Angeles Rams vs. Buffalo Bills prop bets for Week 1, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated, as well as fall short of expectations. All prop bets are based on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Rams vs. Bills: Top DraftKings prop bets to target

The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics culled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes. Criteria such as age, durability, shifting personnel, scheduling, and other factors help shape these final assessments.

Bills under 3.5 touchdowns (-170)

This prop bet is based in large part on Buffalo’s powerful offense and seventh-ranked turnover differential (last year). They were also No. 5 in offensive time of possession in 2021, and even more notably, they scored 27+ points in seven of eight regular-season road games — including against tough defenses like the Saints and Patriots.

So let’s use this overconfidence to our advantage. In Week 1 of 2020, teams averaged more field-goal attempts per game (4.2) than in any other week, except Week 3 (also 4.2). Week 1 also featured the third-lowest yards per rushing attempt, as well as the fewest passing touchdowns per game for the first half of the season (through Week 9).

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Week 1 is a feeling-out period for many teams. Most key players have barely seen real game action since January (or in the Rams’ case, February). Last year, in Week 1 against the Steelers, Josh Allen averaged only 5.3 yards per pass attempt — in what would be his lowest mark until Week 13. His first seven attempts were all short outs.

Compound that with a strong Rams defense, and we have the making of a surprisingly tough defensive battle, despite the high over on points. I’m expecting Buffalo to play relatively conservatively in the first couple of drives and picking their moments as the game progresses. Three touchdowns seems like a realistic ceiling, not a floor.

Field goals made over 3.5 (+120)

You probably figured this was coming. Buffalo’s Tyler Bass is a capable kicker from deep, hitting 6 of 10 from 50+ in his brief career. The Rams’ Matt Gay is even better, knocking through 10 of 14 from 50 or longer.

If one team gets out to a big lead, we could envision the other team foregoing a field-goal attempt from, say, 45 yards away on 4th-and-2. But I think there’s a higher probability that neither team seizes control in the first half. Any drive that stalls inside the opposing 40-yard line will present a good-to-great field-goal opportunity. Four or more between these two teams seems realistic.

Rams win by 1-6 points (+320) or 7-12 points (+650)

We’ve established that these are two evenly matched teams whose defenses are relatively likely to at least partially contain each opposing offense. I’m giving the defending Super Bowl champions the edge, thanks in part to a deceptively talented running game that should perform better than expected.

Since a blowout is unlikely, I would suggest placing two bets on the Rams’ margin of victory. If either hits, it would be a nice net win. Keep in mind that Buffalo lost only one game last year by more than seven points and have lost only twice by more than nine points since early November 2019. The Bills are entirely beatable, but they’re not often crushable.

BJ Rudell is the Fantasy Football and Betting Product Director for Pro Football Network. You can read all of BJ’s work here and follow him on Twitter: @BJRudell.

This content was originally published here.

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