If you’re planning to make NFL prop bets for this important Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs Week 18 matchup on Saturday, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed the game’s highest-probability scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated and which could fall short of expectations.
All prop bets are based on DraftKings Sportsbook, BetMGM, or FanDuel Sportsbook. Make sure to check out FanDuel, where you can get a no-sweat first bet up to $1,000.
Top Raiders vs. Chiefs Player Props To Target
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
The final week of the regular season sometimes is a crapshoot. Playoff-bound teams might rest their starters for some/all of the game. The same goes for teams with no shot at the postseason.
But this contest is tougher to figure out. With a win, the Chiefs would secure the AFC’s No. 1 seed and a first-round bye. Do they want a week off before facing, hypothetically, the Jaguars or Chargers? Or will they need to win a first-round game before battling, for example, the Bengals? Do they want to potentially travel on the road for the AFC title game? Or would they prefer to remain at home until the Super Bowl?
These recommended bets assume Kansas City will keep their starters on the field for at least three quarters, assuming the Raiders play them competitively. The Chiefs have shown vulnerabilities on defense. If Vegas gets a full 60 minutes of Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams, then we could see both teams cracking 30 points.
Patrick Mahomes Player Props
We bet against Patrick Mahomes at our own risk. By the year 2035, he might be viewed as one of the four or five greatest QBs in history. Maybe even top three.
The Chiefs are No. 1 in the league with 29.1 points per game, in part, because Mahomes leads the NFL with 5,048 passing yards and 40 passing touchdowns. Ignore his five interceptions in the past six weeks. One was against the Rams, and the other four were against the vaunted Broncos defense.
While his yardage prop line might be a bit high, given Kansas City’s first-and-foremost focus on minimizing injuries ahead of the postseason (i.e. a slightly more conservative game plan), Mahomes is a good bet for 3+ scores.
Isiah Pacheco Player Props
Keep an eye on Ronald Jones, the Chiefs’ No. 3 RB, who’s earned a carry in each of the last three games. Doesn’t seem like much. But in the context of the impending playoffs and Isiah Pacheco’s critical role, we might see a bit more Jones and a bit less Pacheco, especially if KC controls the game.
Remember, Pacheco never profiled as this team’s lead back in camp. As a seventh-round rookie, he was simply trying to make the team. Then he caught fire, Clyde Edwards-Helaire got hurt, and the rest is history.
Pacheco has now averaged 14.8 carries in his last eight games — nearly above his season high at Rutgers. After an inefficient 69 yards on 22 carries six weeks ago, the Chiefs have eased up on him, leading to only nine rushing attempts last week. I’d be shocked if he gets more than 12 against the Raiders, making his prop line risky.
Travis Kelce Player Props
I like Travis Kelce scoring in this one. The Raiders have been beatable against the pass, and my belief in Mahomes’ scoring prowess ties directly to his No. 1 tight end.
But Kelce’s yardage prop line seems too high in a game where we might see a little more Kadarius Toney, who’s still acclimating to the offense. There also assuredly will be plays designed for backup TE Noah Gray, who’s caught 27 of 33 targets on the season.
The 33-year-old Kelce doesn’t need to bust out in this one. He’s averaging his lowest offensive snap share (80%) since 2014. Almost imperceptibly, Kansas City is using him more situationally. If you watched him late last season, with the exception of his heroic performance against the Chargers, it seemed clear that he had lost a step in the midst of a grueling campaign.
Heading into Week 18, Kelce should still be a good bet for four or five catches for 45-55 yards. But the key here is to get the win, limit his contact with defenders, and get him ready for the three biggest games of the season.
Davante Adams Player Props
Jarrett Stidham is trying to make the case for a 2023 starting job. In this game — just as in most games — Davante Adams might be the difference-maker.
Stidham and Adams connected beautifully last weekend against a tough 49ers defense, as Adams racked up more yards than he had in his previous three games combined.
Only 12 wide receivers have enjoyed 1,500-yard receiving seasons. Adams can join that club with a mere 57 yards. He can also garner a career-best 1,554 yards if he can post 111 on the Chiefs. It’s doable, and given what we’ve seen from him and KC’s defense, I think it’s very doable.
This content was originally published here.