Raiders vs. Chiefs odds, line, spread: Monday Night Football picks, predictions from NFL model on 140-105 roll

Patrick Mahomes and he Kansas City Chiefs will look to keep control of the AFC West when they take on the rival Las Vegas Raiders on Monday Night Football in Kansas City, Mo. The Chiefs (3-1), who have won the last six division titles, have won at least 12 games in five of the last six seasons under coach Andy Reid. The Raiders (1-3), meanwhile, will look to tighten the division race and start to build an impressive enough resume to make their second consecutive trip to the postseason. Since 2002, they have just two playoff appearances, and have not won a Super Bowl since 1983.

The game from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium is slated to start at 8:15 p.m. ET. The Chiefs are tied for the fourth-best offense in the NFL this season, averaging 384.8 yards per game, while the Raiders are 13th at 356.3. Kansas City is a 7-point favorite in the latest Raiders vs. Chiefs odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 51.5. Before making any Chiefs vs. Raiders picks, be sure to check out the NFL predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 5 of the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 140-105 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Raiders vs. Chiefs and just locked in its picks and MNF predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are the NFL odds and betting lines for Raiders vs. Chiefs:

  • Raiders vs. Chiefs spread: Chiefs -7
  • Raiders vs. Chiefs over/under: 51.5 points 
  • Raiders vs. Chiefs money line: Raiders +278, Chiefs -355 
  • LV: Over has hit in last two Raiders games
  • KC: Chiefs are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine Monday games 

Featured Game | Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders

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Why the Chiefs can cover

Kansas City is led by a prolific passer in Mahomes. Mahomes has thrown at least one touchdown pass in each game this season, including five in a 44-21 season-opening win at Arizona on Sept. 11, and three last week at Tampa Bay in a 41-31 victory. For the season, he has completed 97 of 146 passes (66.4%) for 1,106 yards and 11 touchdowns. He has been picked off twice and sacked five times, but has a rating of 108.4.

His top target has been tight end Travis Kelce, who leads the team with 26 receptions for 322 yards (12.4 average) and three touchdowns. He has had five explosive plays of 20 yards or more, including a season-high of 35 yards. He has also converted 21 first downs. In last week’s win, he caught nine passes for 92 yards and a score, while piling up eight first-down conversions.

Why the Raiders can cover 

Despite that, the Chiefs are not a lock to cover the Raiders vs. Chiefs spread. That’s because Las Vegas has a potent one-two combination in quarterback Derek Carr and wide receiver Davante Adams. Carr passed for 188 yards with no interceptions and rushed for a season-high 40 yards last week against Denver. He has two touchdown passes in three of four games this season. For the year, he has thrown for 1,038 yards and six touchdowns.

Adams led the Raiders with nine catches for 101 yards last week and has a TD catch in three of four games this season. In his last game against Kansas City as a member of the Green Bay Packers, he had six catches in a 13-7 loss on Nov. 7, 2021. Adams will try for his sixth game in a row in primetime and fourth in a row on Monday Night Football with 115 or more receiving yards. For the season, Adams has 26 receptions for 290 yards (11.2 average) and three touchdowns.

How to make Raiders vs. Chiefs picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the point total. In fact, it’s calling for 56 total points. It has also generated an against-the-spread pick that cashes in well over 50% of simulations. You can only get the model’s MNF picks at SportsLine

So who wins Chiefs vs. Raiders on Monday Night Football? And which side of the spread cashes in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Chiefs vs. Raiders spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up nearly $7,000 on its NFL picks, and find out.

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