The New York Giants (6-2, tied 2nd in NFC East) return to the Meadowlands fresh off their bye week as they face off against the Houston Texans (1-6-1, last in AFC South) at MetLife Stadium on Sunday afternoon.
Even though they didn’t play in Week 9, the Giants suffered a massive blow in their secondary as star safety Xavier McKinney suffered a hand injury that will now keep him out multiple weeks.
Houston last played on Thursday Night Football in a 29-17 defeat against the now 8-0 undefeated Philadelphia Eagles last week.
Can the Giants bounce back after a Week 8 loss against the Seattle Seahawks or will the Texans pull off a massive upset? Here are my picks and predictions for this matchup with odds powered by Tipico Sportsbook.
Spread: Giants -6.5 (-110)
For the first time since Week 3 and only the second time all year, the Giants failed to cover the spread in their previous game as New York played its first non-one possession game in the 27-13 loss in Seattle in Week 8. The team was outscored 17-6 in the second half as they suffered only their second loss of the season.
Despite the defeat, the Giants are still 6-2 against the spread (ATS) in 2022 and have covered the spread in three of four home games so far. New York is 19-8-1 in its previous 27 games when playing a team with a losing record and are 7-3 in its last 10 matchups after allowing fewer than 90 rushing yards in its last game. The team is also 7-2 ATS in their previous nine games in November.
However, the Giants are only 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games following an ATS and straight up loss. New York has also had a tough time in mid-November in recent history as its failed to cover the spread in 12 of its last 17 matchups that have taken place during Week 10.
The Texans are just a woeful 7-17-2 against the spread in their last 26 games following an a ATS win and are 1-5 ATS in their prior six matchups following a double-digit loss at home.
While the underdog has covered the spread in four of the last five meetings, New York has covered in three straight matchups.
It may seem like a lot of points but don’t be afraid to lay the -6.5 points on Tipico Sportsbook with the Giants in this spot.
Over/Under: Under 40 total points (-110)
For the third straight game and sixth time in eight weeks, the total went under in the Giants’ game. The under is 16-4-1 in the team’s last 21 games when they’ve failed to cover the spread and is 15-5-1 the team’s previous 21 games following a straight up loss. New York has been one of the best team’s in recent memory to the under as its 34-16-2 in its prior 52 home game and 33-16-2 in its last 51 games overall. The total has gone under in seven straight in November and in the last six games the team has played an opponent with a losing road record.
Meanwhile, the Texans’ are 8-3 to the under in their previous 11 road games and in seven of their last 10 matchups after an ATS victory.
With two of the least explosive offenses in the NFL, don’t be afraid to bet one of the lowest totals on the board this weekend of only 40 points at Tipico Sportsbook.
Moneyline: Giants (-300)
There’s no denying the Giants struggled against a surging Seahawks’ defense nearly two weeks ago. However, they should have more success especially on the ground come Sunday afternoon. After star RB Saquon Barkley had a so-so performance with his fewest rushing yards in a game this season (20 carries for 53 yards and 1 TD) in Seattle, I believe he bounces back in a big way against a Houston squad that surrenders a league-high 180.6 rushing yards per game this season.
On the other side, I also expect Texans’ rookie running back Dameon Pierce to have success on the ground as well against a Giants run defense that currently gives up 137.3 yards per game, eighth most in the NFL. The 22-year-old RB had a season-high 139 rushing yards against the Eagles last Thursday night.
In all, I expect this game to be dominated by the ground game but for New York to stay in control against at home and play its own style of football against one of the worst teams this season.
Your best bets
PREDICTION: GIANTS 23, TEXANS 14
Check out Tipico Sportsbook for all the latest up-to-date betting odds and lines for Week 10 in the NFL.
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