The New York Giants (7-2, 2nd in NFC East) play their sixth game at MetLife Stadium this season as they face the Detroit Lions (3-6, 3rd in NFC North) in Week 11 on Sunday at 1 p.m.
The Giants took care of business against the lowly Texans, 24-16, in Week 10 thanks to a massive performance from RB Saquon Barkley. The 25-year-old had his fourth 100+ rushing yard game of the season (152) and scored for the fourth time in five games. Barkley leads the NFL with 931 rushing yards on the season.
The Lions have won back-to-back games after a thrilling 31-30 victory over the Chicago Bears on Sunday. It’s the first time since Weeks 6 and 7 of the 2020 season Detroit has won two in a row. It was the team’s first road win in 13 games (0-12-1).
Can the Giants earn their first eight-win season since 2016, or will the Lions win three straight for the first time in five years? Here are my picks and predictions with odds powered by Tipico Sportsbook.
Spread: Giants -3.5 (-103)
While the Giants started last week as -6.5 point favorites on Tipico, the betting market was backing the Texans for a majority of the week as New York closed at -4.5. Just like their 7-2 record, the G-Men are also 7-2 against the spread (ATS) as they covered in five of their last six games. The team has also fared well against weaker opponents as they’re 20-8-1 ATS in the previous 29 games against a team with a losing record. The Giants are 5-1 against the spread at home this season and have covered eight of their last 10 games against in the month of November.
However, the lone trend not going in the Giants’ way is that they’ve covered the spread in only two of their prior nine matchups that have taken place during Week 11.
Even though they’ve struggled this year, Detroit sits just outside the Top 10 in terms of covering as it’s 5-4 against the spread in 2022. The Lions have covered in eight of their last 11 against NFC opponents, five straight games in November and are 5-2 ATS versus a team with a winning record.
In this head-to-head matchup, Detroit is 4-1 against the spread in the previous five meetings in New York and the road team is 7-2 ATS in the prior nine games.
Despite the Lions’ earning their first road victory in nearly two years last week, I expect the Giants to yet again cover this small number, but wouldn’t be shocked if this number goes up after last week’s performance.
Bet on the G-Men to win by at least four points this Sunday on Tipico Sportsbook.
Over/Under: Over 46 points (-112)
When it comes to totals, these two teams could not be more opposites. The Giants have hit the under in seven of their first nine games and have not gone over this total of 46 points since Week 6 in a 27-22 come-from-behind victory over the Green Bay Packers in London. New York has also gone under in seven straight home games against a team with a losing record and in 20 of its last 26 against a team that has a losing record.
Through 10 weeks, Detroit is the second best team to the over and has cashed in six of nine matchups. The Lions have gone over the total in eight of their last 11 overall and in seven of their past nine games against NFC opponents.
The last time these two teams met they combined for 57 points in a 31-26 loss for the G-Men on Oct. 27, 2019.
It may feel risky taking a Giants’ total to go over, but don’t hesitate to bet more than 46 points here as we could see yet another shootout in Week 11.
Moneyline: Giants (-175)
While he threw just 17 times against the Texans on Sunday, Giants QB Daniel Jones was extremely efficient as he completed 13 passes, threw two TDs and recorded a passer rating of 153.3, the best passer-rating in a game by any QB so far this season.
Do not be surprised if the Giants put up 30 on the scoreboard for the first time since Week 5 of the 2020 season as the Lions defense gives up the most points (29.3) and total yards (416.2) through 10 weeks. Detroit has already surrendered 30 or more points in four games this year.
I believe we see an exciting, high-scoring affair in this one but have more faith in the Giants’ defense to get stops when necessary en route to their eighth victory of the 2022 season.
My Best Bets
Place a wager on the Giants as a favorite on the moneyline (-175), to cover the -3.5 spread (-103) and the over of 46 total points scored at -112 on Tipico Sportsbook.
PREDICTION: Giants 30, Lions 21
Check out Tipico Sportsbook for all the latest up-to-date betting lines and odds for Week 11 in the NFL.
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