The New York Giants (5-1, 2nd in NFC East) head down to the Sunshine State as they play the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-4, 3rd in AFC South) in Week 7 at TIAA Bank Field.
New York continued its trend of fourth quarter comebacks this season as it rallied from a 20-10 deficit with only six minutes left to beat the Baltimore Ravens 24-20 at MetLife Stadium in Week 6. With Sunday’s victory, the G-Men have now won three straight and more games (5) than they did all of last year (4).
Despite a 2-1 start, the Jaguars have lost three in a row including blowing leads of 21-13 and 27-26 in the second half of a 34-27 loss to the Indianapolis Colts in Week 7.
Will the Giants move to 6-1 as underdogs again or can the Jaguars snap their losing streak? Here are my picks and predictions for this matchup with odds powered by Tipico Sportsbook.
Spread: Giants +3.5 (-125)
For the third straight week, the Giants covered the spread and won outright. New York’s fourth quarter heroics have them as one of the best covering teams in the entire league as its 5-1 against the spread (ATS) in 2022. The team has now covered in four straight games in October and are 18-8-1 ATS against a team with a losing record. New York is 8-3 against the spread in its last 11 road games versus a team with a losing home record and have covered in five of its last seven games during week 7. The one negative to note with the Giants’ trends is that they are only 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games.
The Jaguars trends are much more concerning. Jacksonville is a woeful 3-11 against the spread in its last 14 games and 4-9 ATS in its previous 13 home matchups. The team has only covered the spread in seven of its last 26 games in October and have failed to cover 10 of its previous 12 games following a straight up loss.
In recent head-to-head matchups, Jacksonville has had the upper hand. The Giants have not covered in four straight meetings and have lost outright in three of those games.
To me, this is the betting market still unfairly treating the G-Men as they’re underdogs yet again for the sixth time this year despite their early season success. While you can’t always rely on late game comebacks especially as the season progresses, the Giants should at least be a small point or two favorite in my mind against a team in the Jaguars that haven’t won in nearly a month.
Bet the Giants while you still can as an underdog on Tipico Sportsbook as it would not surprise me if the line moves in favor of them closer to kickoff come this Sunday.
Over/Under: Under 42.5 points (-110)
While the Giants have fought back late in games numerous times this year and are tied for most points scored in the second half, it means they haven’t been able to get much going early on offense leading to lower scoring outcomes. This was the case last Sunday as the G-Men went into the half trailing 10-7 against the Ravens. Just like being one of the best teams against the spread so far, New York has also been great to the score going under the projected total. Four of the team’s six games have gone under and below this projected total of just 42.5 points.
Looking at trends, Giants’ games have gone under in 23 of the last 31 overall, 13 of their last 17 when successfully covering the spread and is 18-6 in the last 24 games when playing a team with a losing record. The under has hit in six straight games for New York during Week 7 and three of its last five in October.
The Jaguars have been better in having higher scoring games as the team has hit the over in four of six games in 2022. This includes three of their last four outcomes that have had 48 or more points scored. However, the under is 7-1 in Jacksonville’s last eight home games, 20-8 in its’ 28 games against a team with a winning record and in 10 of its previous 11 home games when facing a team with a winning road record.
In the last four head-to-head matchups, to over/under is 2-2 with the last outcome going under the then 43 point total with a 20-15 win for the Jaguars’ at MetLife Stadium on September 9, 2018.
It wouldn’t shock me if this does go over but I’m sticking with the under 42.5 points at -110 right now on Tipico Sportsbook.
Moneyline: Giants (+140)
It’s very rare in today’s NFL you see a team that’s won three straight be an underdog against a team that’s lost three in a row. However, that’s where the Giants find themselves as of Monday evening against the Jaguars. While the Giants late game magic may finally disappear, it’s hard to bet against a team that’s beaten superstar quarterbacks in Aaron Rodgers and Lamar Jackson in back-to-back weeks. I predicted the G-Men would cover against both said QBs but eventually the talent under center would win out but yet here we are.
Even though their record may not indicate it, the Jaguars have also shown a lot of fight under new head coach Doug Pederson in his first season in Jacksonville. They beat the Colts and went to Los Angeles and dominated the Chargers 38-10 in Week 3.
However, I just can’t bet that the Giants are going to run into a road bump here against a Jaguars’ squad that’s been struggling to get much going on either side of the ball the previous three weeks.
I believe this will still be a close game just like the G-Men have played all season long as New York emerges victorious yet again, earning their first win in Jacksonville in four tries and moving to 6-1 on the season.
I’d place a bet on the Giants as an underdog on the moneyline (+140) to cover the +3.5 spread (-125) and the under 42.5 total points scored at -110 on Tipico Sportsbook.
PREDICTION: GIANTS 21, JAGUARS 17
Check out Tipico Sportsbook for all the latest up-to-date betting odds and lines for Week 7 in the NFL.
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