• Bet Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson anytime TD (+105) at Browns: The man with Damien Harris sidelined, Stevenson went off in Week 5 for 25-161 rushing against the Lions, who are bad, but not quite as bad as Cleveland vs. run (league-low 34.8 PFF run ‘D’ grade, 6 TDs allowed).
• Bet Bucs WR Chris Godwin anytime TD (+135) at Steelers: PFF’s WR/CB Matchup Tool shows Godwin has the week’s 3rd-best matchup advantage against the Steelers defenders.
• New users who bet $10 or more at BetMGM will receive a free year’s subscription to PFF+ — a $79.99 value.
Last updated: Fri. Oct. 14, 2:35 p.m.
Estimated reading time: 4 min
After another offensive dud on “Thursday Night Football,” more low-scoring games could be ahead as only two totals currently are over 46 in Week 6. Of course we love games with higher totals, but we can still analyze these matchups and find value in a few players who will be celebrating in the end zone Sunday afternoon.
Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) @ Seattle Seahawks (50.5)
Bet: Zach Ertz Anytime TD (+170)
• Zach Ertz has seen double-digit targets in three of the Cardinals’ five games: Now, Ertz and the Cards face a Seattle defense that has allowed 17.6 yards per catch ( most in the NFL) and the 3rd-most TDs to opposing tight ends (4).
• Seattle ranks dead-last in successful defensive drive percentage (48.1%): Allowing opposing offenses to score a touchdown or field goal on 52% of their drives. Arizona is not far behind with the 4th-worst percentage (54.2%). We might have a shootout between two mediocre teams.
Buffalo Bills (-2.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (54)
Bet: Josh Allen Anytime TD (+150)
• All signs point to another offensive shootout: The Bills and Chiefs are one and two in passing EPA/Play, Success rate and rank in the top 3 in successful offensive drive percentage. Both Buffalo and Kansas City score on nearly 50% of their offensive possessions.
• Allen had 11 rushing attempts in both games against Chiefs last season: And his 11 rushes inside the red zone this season rank 2nd in the NFL.
Bet: WR Chris Godwin Anytime TD (+135)
• Chris Godwin is starting to get healthy and become a big part of this offense again: Over the past two weeks, he has been targeted 16 times, hauling in 13 catches; it is only a matter of time before he finds the end zone.
• PFF’s WR/CB Matchup Tool shows Godwin has the week’s 3rd-best matchup advantage against the Steelers defenders.
Bet: WR Cooper Kupp Anytime TD (-145)
• Panthers have only allowed 3 touchdowns to opposing wide receivers: On paper, that looks great, but four of the five teams they have faced thus far rank in the bottom half of the league in receiving yards, and only one team (Cleveland Browns), ranks in the top 15 in passing success rate.
• Kupp leads the NFL in targets (64) and receptions (49), despite double and even triple coverage as the Rams’ current lone receiver threat: And he has the best overall matchup in Week 6, per PFF WR/CB matchup tool.
Bet: Rhamondre Stevenson Anytime TD (+105)
• While Damien Harris is out, Stevenson is the man: Last week, Stevenson rushed 25 times for 161 yards. Though it was against a Detroit Lions defense that ranks dead-last in EPA/play and 31st in Success Rate vs the run, more good news for the Patriots and Stevenson: the Browns are currently the worst.
• Cleveland has PFF’s lowest-graded run ‘D:’ 34.8, and the Browns also have allowed the 2nd-most rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs (6). With Bailey Zappe getting the start again, the Patriots will continue leaning on Stevenson.
This content was originally published here.