NFL Week 10 expert picks and odds for Vikings vs. Bills, Bucs vs. Seahawks and every other game – The Athletic

The number of key injuries on different teams has been wreaking havoc in the betting market. That’s causing some big swings in spreads during the week as injury reports get published on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

Only four teams are on bye this week, so we get 14 games this weekend.

The Bills and Vikings matchup might be one of the best games on Sunday’s schedule, but Bills quarterback Josh Allen is questionable with an elbow injury that might keep him out of the game. Case Keenum is the backup quarterback for Buffalo. The Bills opened as 6.5-point favorites but that spread is down to 3.5 points as of Thursday morning.

Sunday night’s matchup between the 49ers and Chargers will be an interesting game for both teams. The 49ers now have Christian McCaffrey fully integrated into their offense. The Chargers have rebounded to a 5-3 record while battling key injuries throughout the roster and picked up a crazy last-minute win at Atlanta last week.

Unders continue to dominate and are hitting more than 58 percent this season. We saw a jump in scoring in Week 8, but that might’ve been due to some high-scoring matchups. It was another big week for unders last week, and that continues to be the trend this season.

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Odds now update live. The Ravens, Bengals, Patriots and Jets are all on bye this week. 

It’s an NFC South clash as the tied-for-first-place Atlanta Falcons travel to Carolina at 8:15 p.m. ET on Thursday at Bank of America Stadium on Amazon Prime. Atlanta is a field-goal favorite on the road.

The Falcons find themselves tied with the Bucs despite both teams having a sub-.500 record.

Atlanta has been a lot better than their record suggests. And going forward, they’ll use the boost that returning running back Cordarrelle Patterson gives them in hopes of securing a playoff spot.

Patterson was the only point of the offense for the Falcons, as he accounted for two touchdowns in his first game back. The Panthers have allowed the third-most rushing yards in the league this year (1,254), so look for Patterson and Marcus Mariota to try to establish the run game on a short week.

If the Falcons decided to use Kyle Pitts, who had 197 air yards in Week 9, the most for a tight end this season, they could opt to try to beat the Panthers through air, too. But we just saw Joe Mixon carve them up for five touchdowns – four rushing – so expect a ton of Patterson in this one.

Writer Straight Up Pick
Josh Kendall
Nick Kosmider
Michael-Shawn Dugar
Jay Morrison
Tashan Reed
Mark Kaboly
Larry Holder
Austin Mock
Zach Berman
Ben Standig

Seattle Seahawks vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Munich

The Geno Smith redemption tour is going international this week as the surprising Seattle Seahawks look to extend their winning streak when they play Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Munich. Despite Tampa Bay’s recent struggles offensively, they are still nearly a field goal favorite against a Seahawks team that has won four games in a row.

Kickoff is set for 9:30 a.m. ET Sunday from Munich. The game will be televised nationally on NFL Network.

It is a massive game for both teams as they look to continue their quests for their respective division leads.

The Seahawks are the biggest surprise in the league, sitting atop the NFC West with a 6-3 record thanks in large part to the stunning play of Smith. After being written off as a bust and career backup for the past decade, Smith has taken full advantage of his opportunity with the Seahawks and is putting together a season that should have him in the MVP discussion. He has been one of the league’s top passers all season and has taken the Seahawks from a preseason cellar dweller to a bonafide contender in the NFC.

The Seahawks still have three huge divisional games remaining on their schedule (including both games against the Los Angeles Rams), but after Sunday’s neutral site game, five of their final seven games will be played at home. That is a massive boost.

Tampa Bay, meanwhile, is barely clinging to the top spot in the NFC South despite a 4-5 record on the season. Brady and the offense have struggled to find consistency all season and enter Sunday’s game averaging just 18 points per game. Despite their struggles and inconsistency, they still have a strong path for the NFC South title ahead of them, with a very manageable schedule ahead of them as only two of their remaining opponents (Seattle and Cincinnati) currently occupy a playoff spot.

Writer Straight Up Pick
Josh Kendall
Nick Kosmider
Michael-Shawn Dugar
Jay Morrison
Tashan Reed
Mark Kaboly
Larry Holder
Austin Mock
Zach Berman
Ben Standig

Minnesota Vikings at Buffalo Bills

Sunday’s matchup between the Minnesota Vikings and Buffalo Bills has a legitimate chance to be the weekend’s best NFL game. You’ve got electrifying talent on both teams and two of the league’s highest-scoring offenses but a surprisingly low point total. Nevertheless, the Bills are favored to beat the Vikings. This spread originally opened with the Bills favored by 7.5 points. That’s falling as questions continued to surround the healthy of Bills quarterback Josh Allen and his injured elbow.

Under first-year head coach Kevin O’Connell, the Vikings (7-1) are leading the NFC North and are off to their best start through eight games since the 2019 season. Despite Justin Jefferson having another elite season or the Minnesota defense frequently taking the ball away from opposing offenses, there’s no singular reason for their success. However, it should be noted how the Vikings continue to win one-score games. Can they do so again on Sunday?

The Bills’ only two losses are by one score, so perhaps they might want to steer away from those close games. In that case, Buffalo would need Allen to be healthy and showcase his game-changing abilities as a passer and runner. But his status for Sunday’s contest is currently up in the air due to an elbow injury. Keep an eye out for the official injury report, as the Bills consider him day-to-day right now.

Writer Straight Up Pick
Josh Kendall
Nick Kosmider
Michael-Shawn Dugar
Jay Morrison
Tashan Reed
Mark Kaboly
Larry Holder
Austin Mock
Zach Berman
Ben Standig
Josh Kendall

So, that happened quickly. After his early-season struggles and being treated with kid gloves, Justin Fields now leads the NFC North in QBR.

Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET Sunday from Soldier Field in Chicago. The game will be televised on FOX.

He’ll look to build on his recent performance – including his breakout game last week against the Dolphins.

Even after the Bears heartbreaking loss to the Dolphins and the Lions big home win over the Packers in Week 9, the Bears open just shy of field-goal favorites at home.

And that’s thanks to Fields’ development as a quarterback – both on the ground and through the air. Fields torched the Dolphins, who give up the fourth-most yards through the air on average, and now gets the Lions, who give up the sixth-most yards per game through the air.

What’s more, the Lions rushing defense has been a gift to the opposition this year so look for a healthy dose of Fields, David Montgomery, and Khalil Herbert in this one.

The Bears lead the league in rushing attempts and trail only the Ravens in yards per carry, with the Lions giving up 1,190 yards on the ground and 13 rushing touchdowns – tied with the Browns for the second-most.

Know who allows the most? The Bears.

But D’Andre Swift played just 10 snaps against the Packers, as he’s still not 100 percent from his ankle and shoulder injuries, which hurts the Lions’ offense.
If the Bears can contain Jamaal Williams in the red zone and limit Amon-Ra St. Brown on the outside, they should be able to keep up with the Lions.

Writer Straight Up Pick
Josh Kendall
Nick Kosmider
Michael-Shawn Dugar
Jay Morrison
Tashan Reed
Mark Kaboly
Larry Holder
Austin Mock
Zach Berman
Ben Standig

Week 10’s showdown between the Tennessee Titans and Denver Broncos should be a good but low-scoring AFC matchup. The Broncos will enter Nissan Stadium on Sunday as field-goal underdogs.

Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET Sunday from Nissan Stadium in Nashville. The game will be televised on CBS.

For the Titans, the question is whether we will see rookie Malik Willis make his third-straight start at quarterback or if veteran QB Ryan Tannehill will return from injury to take back over as QB1. The potential outcome of the game and the game lines could look different depending on who gets the nod. But for now, we’re looking at what sportsbooks predict as the lowest-scoring game of the week.

There’s more than one reason why the over/under is low for this game, and Denver’s offense is probably the main one. The Broncos are scoring the third-fewest points per game in the NFL this season (15.1) and are still looking for its first big offensive explosion in the Russell Wilson era. An offensive explosion could realistically springboard the Broncos as they get the second half of their season started following the bye week.

Writer Straight Up Pick
Josh Kendall
Nick Kosmider
Michael-Shawn Dugar
Jay Morrison
Tashan Reed
Mark Kaboly
Larry Holder
Austin Mock
Zach Berman
Ben Standig

Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs have a great opportunity to extend their lead in the AFC West on Sunday when they host the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Chiefs are more than a touchdown favorite against the Jaguars (3-6), who are also coming off a come-from-behind win against Vegas.

Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET Sunday from Kansas City. The game will be televised on CBS.

Despite being off their game a little on Sunday night against Tennessee, the Chiefs’ offense still made enough players when it mattered most to win its second game in a row and fourth in five games.

Patrick Mahomes had one of his worst games of the season on Sunday but is still having an MVP-caliber year as he enters the game leading the league in both passing yards (2,605) and touchdown passes (21), while also running for another. He is doing all that with a revamped wide receiver corps that recently added Kadarius Toney to its roster. Even with all of the changes on the outside, the Chiefs’ passing game still runs through tight end Travis Kelce, who has been an absolute tear over the past five games.

Even though the Jaguars enter Sunday’s game with a 3-6 record, their defense has held its own this season and limited opponents to less than 20 points per game. The issue has been on offense, where second-year quarterback Trevor Lawrence has struggled with consistency and has not yet taken a big step forward.

It is a significant quarterback mismatch on paper, but the Jaguars have had a knack for winning some of these games in recent years, including earlier this season when they shocked Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers.

Writer Straight Up Pick
Josh Kendall
Nick Kosmider
Michael-Shawn Dugar
Jay Morrison
Tashan Reed
Mark Kaboly
Larry Holder
Austin Mock
Zach Berman
Ben Standig

Cleveland Browns at Miami Dolphins


An AFC matchup is set for Sunday when the Cleveland Browns (3-5) take on the Miami Dolphins (6-3). Coming off of their bye week, the Browns will play the underdog role when they head for Week 10’s game.

Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET Sunday from Hard Rock Stadium. The game will be televised on CBS.

Miami is tied in the win column with the Bills (6-2) and Jets (6-3), but sits in third place in the AFC East. With a healthy Tua Tagovailoa and a few trade deadline moves, Mike McDaniel’s Dolphins could realistically play their way into the top spot in the division by the time this regular season concludes. A win on Sunday against a rested Cleveland team would be a positive step in that direction.

Given their recent couple of weeks, the Browns might walk into Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday with the perfect blend of rest and confidence. But none of that matters if they don’t execute a proper game plan, which should include lots of Nick Chubb. Chubb, the NFL’s second-leading rusher on the season (841 yards), has topped 100 rushing yards in each of Cleveland’s three wins. He’ll likely need to see plenty of opportunities if the Browns want to win this game.

Writer Straight Up Pick
Josh Kendall
Nick Kosmider
Michael-Shawn Dugar
Jay Morrison
Tashan Reed
Mark Kaboly
Larry Holder
Austin Mock
Zach Berman
Ben Standig

Saquon Barkley and the surprising New York Giants host the Houston Texans Sunday. The Giants are big favorites. The good news is that Barkley gets to face the worst rush defense in the league this week, as the Texans have surrendered 1,445 yards at 5.4 yards per clip.

Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET Sunday from MetLife Stadium. The game will be televised on CBS.

The Giants (6-2) are fresh off a bye and trying to keep pace with the aforementioned Eagles and the Cowboys.

But while the Giants seem like the safe pick against the 1-6 Texans off a bye week, it’s worth noting that the Giants seem unable to beat teams comfortably. As a touchdown favorite, it feels like a slight trap – even as bad as Houston has been.

Barkley and Wan’Dale Robinson will likely be the Giants’ offensive game plan focal points this week.

But it’s worth noting that the Giants give up 5.5 yards per carry – the second-worst mark in the league.

We’ve seen rookie Dameon Pierce break out this year, rushing for at least 92 yards in four of his last five games, as he leads all rookies with 678 rushing yards.

In the six wins the Giants have, they have won by margins of six, four, five, eight, three, and one. Three of those wins came against struggling teams (Panthers, Packers and Jaguars) who may not be as bad as the Texans.

Writer Straight Up Pick
Josh Kendall
Nick Kosmider
Michael-Shawn Dugar
Jay Morrison
Tashan Reed
Mark Kaboly
Larry Holder
Austin Mock
Zach Berman
Ben Standig

If the Pittsburgh Steelers are going to turn their season around, this has to be the week that it happens. Perhaps the most telling sign of how far they have fallen this season is that they are nearly a field goal underdog at home against a three-win New Orleans Saints team.

Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET Sunday from Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh. The game will be televised on FOX.

The best news for the Steelers is the likely return of superstar outside linebacker T.J. Watt. Watt, the NFL’s reigning defensive player of the year, has been sidelined since the Steelers’ Week 1 in Cincinnati with pectoral and knee injuries. You can not overstate how much of an impact he makes on the Steelers’ defense when he is in the lineup. Since he entered the NFL, the Steelers are just 1-10 in games Watt does not play, while they allow an additional seven points per game when he is out of the lineup. The Steelers’ pass rush has been almost non-existent in his absence, while the defense as a whole has struggled.

They will need Watt to make an impact to help offset an offense that continues to struggle as rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett goes through his growing pains behind a bad offensive line.

Despite the Saints’ struggles in the standings, their offense rates in the top half of the NFL, averaging more than 377 yards and 23.6 points per game. Head coach Dennis Allen seems content to stick with Andy Dalton as the team’s starter, even though Jameis Winston – the team’s opening week starter – is apparently healthy.

Because the NFC South is so wide open with no dominant team (everybody has a losing record), the Saints are still only a game out of first place, so this is a huge game for them. It is not a stretch to envision a scenario where a win could have them tied for first place at the end of Sunday.

Writer Straight Up Pick
Josh Kendall
Nick Kosmider
Michael-Shawn Dugar
Jay Morrison
Tashan Reed
Mark Kaboly
Larry Holder
Austin Mock
Zach Berman
Ben Standig


Sam Ehlinger has led the Colts to exactly one touchdown in eight quarters as the starting quarterback. And that touchdown was a Nyheim Hines rushing score. The Colts are now big underdogs when they face the struggling Raiders in Week 10.

Kickoff is set for 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday from Las Vegas. The game will be televised on CBS.

Ehlinger is still looking for his first real success as a quarterback, but the Colts also have a new head coach. The Colts fired Frank Reich on Monday and replaced him with former Colt Jeff Saturday.

The Colts plan to stick with Ehlinger and Jonathan Taylor seems like he’ll be able to return to the lineup this week.

We finally saw a glimpse of what Derek Carr and Davante Adams could do in Las Vegas with Adams’ bounce-back game in a loss to the Jaguars.

While the Colts have allowed the sixth-most passing yards in the league (2,312), they’ve been very bend but don’t break, allowing nine touchdowns and 10 interceptions.

Carr has taken relative care of the ball this year with just five interceptions to his 11 passing TDs.

Writer Straight Up Pick
Josh Kendall
Nick Kosmider
Michael-Shawn Dugar
Jay Morrison
Tashan Reed
Mark Kaboly
Larry Holder
Austin Mock
Zach Berman
Ben Standig

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers


The Green Bay Packers season is teetering on the edge of a full-blown collapse, and things will not get any easier on Sunday when a very good Dallas Cowboys team marches into Lambeau Field. In what is relatively uncharted territory, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers find themselves as nearly a touchdown underdog at home and on a five-game losing streak.

Kickoff is set for 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday. The game will be televised on FOX.

The biggest issue in Green Bay right now is an offense that seems unable to get out of its own way. The Packers have scored more than 22 points just once since Week 2, while veteran quarterback Aaron Rodgers is starting to show his age while getting little help from the players around him. Not only has it been a season-long struggle, but things also seem to be getting dramatically worse as the season goes on, with this past Sunday’s game in Detroit approaching rock-bottom levels.

Now they have to go up against a Dallas defense that is one of the league’s best and has a one-man game-wrecker in Micah Parsons ready to cause havoc.

The big thing to watch for the Cowboys will be how head coach Mike McCarthy handles the running game. Ezekiel Elliott is expected to be back in the lineup. Still, Tony Pollard is coming off of a dominant performance against the Chicago Bears that saw him rush for 131 yards and three touchdowns in the Cowboys’ most recent game. He has outperformed Elliott since joining the Cowboys and is averaging over six yards per carry this season.

While the Packers are falling out of contention for the NFC North title, this is a massive game for Dallas in what has become a highly competitive NFC East. The Cowboys enter the week tied for second in the division with the New York Giants with a 6-2 record.

Writer Straight Up Pick
Josh Kendall
Nick Kosmider
Michael-Shawn Dugar
Jay Morrison
Tashan Reed
Mark Kaboly
Larry Holder
Austin Mock
Zach Berman
Ben Standig

The NFC West’s bottom two teams will face one another on Sunday with hopes of not falling even farther behind in the race for a division title. As the Rams welcome the Cardinals from the desert, Sean McVay’s squad will be a field-goal favorite to escape the division showdown with a victory.

Kickoff is set for 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday from SoFi Stadium. The game will be televised nationally on FOX.

The Rams have lost more than they’ve won this season at home. However, that could change on Sunday when they face a Cardinals team they’ve beaten 11 out of 12 times since McVay took over as the head coach in Los Angeles. But the offense, with only Cooper Kupp as a real offensive threat to defenses, is struggling mightily. Much of the responsibility will be placed on the shoulders of Matthew Stafford and this offensive line to win at home on Sunday and ignite a second-half-of-the-season push.

Speaking of second-half push, the Cardinals desperately need one, but can they finally put together a strong latter half of the season under Kliff Kingsbury? Both the offensive and defensive units could use some screw-tightening ahead of this divisional bout with the Rams.

Writer Straight Up Pick
Josh Kendall
Nick Kosmider
Michael-Shawn Dugar
Jay Morrison
Tashan Reed
Mark Kaboly
Larry Holder
Austin Mock
Zach Berman
Ben Standig

Los Angeles Chargers at San Francisco 49ers


The best thing you can say for the Los Angeles Chargers right now is that they are finding ways to win. It has not always been pretty, but they have done enough to cling to the final wild-card spot in the AFC. Despite the recent wins, they have not done much to inspire much confidence going into Sunday night’s game in San Francisco, where they are a touchdown underdog.

Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday night from Levi’s Stadium. The game will be televised nationally on NBC.

It is a pivotal game for both teams in the playoff race as they both occupy the final wild-card spots in their respective conferences.

The most surprising aspect of this matchup might be the comparable performances of the two quarterbacks — Los Angeles’ Justin Herbert and San Francisco’s Jimmy Garrapolo – this season despite their completely opposite reputations.

On the Los Angeles side, Herbert is viewed as one of the league’s biggest superstars and the driving force behind what should be a Super Bowl contender. On the other side, Garrapolo is seen as the Achilles’ heel on what is otherwise one of the most talented teams in the league. But when you remove their names and look at what each player has done this season, there is virtually nothing separating their performances. Garrapolo has a better completion percentage and a higher passer rating and is averaging nearly two more yards per attempt than Herbert, while they have similar touchdown/interception ratios.

The Chargers need more from their offense, especially with AFC contenders Kansas City, Miami, and Tennessee still looming ahead on their schedule.

The 49ers, meanwhile, have the added benefit of coming into this game off of a bye week with an extra week to prepare. Outside of one tough game against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, San Francisco’s defense has been one of the league’s best this season and should give Herbert and the Chargers a big challenge.

Writer Straight Up Pick
Josh Kendall
Nick Kosmider
Michael-Shawn Dugar
Jay Morrison
Tashan Reed
Mark Kaboly
Larry Holder
Austin Mock
Zach Berman
Ben Standig

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles on Monday


Week 10’s Monday Night Football game is headed to the NFC East when the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles host their division rival Washington Commanders. Philly will go into this one as nearly a two-touchdown favorite.

Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET Monday from Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. The game will be televised nationally on ESPN.

To hand the Eagles their first loss, Washington’s defense will have to find a way to bottle up the Eagles’ offense. The Commanders’ defensive unit is playing its best ball of the season, but stopping Jalen Hurts and Co. is difficult.

Philadelphia is rollin’. Jalen Hurts is putting together an MVP-like season, A.J. Brown’s transition to the City of Brotherly love is going as well as anyone could have imagined. This Eagles’ defensive unit continues to make life miserable for opposing offenses — especially the quarterbacks. But a division rivalry has a weird way of bucking trends and turning football games upside down. Can the Eagles, who are double-digit favorites, avoid a letdown loss?

Writer Straight Up Pick
Josh Kendall
Nick Kosmider
Michael-Shawn Dugar
Jay Morrison
Tashan Reed
Mark Kaboly
Larry Holder
Austin Mock
Zach Berman
Ben Standig

This content was originally published here.

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