NFL Week 1 Thursday Night Football Betting Picks, Player Props: Bills vs Rams

Welcome to the 2022 NFL season!

Looking to build up a little bankroll before Sunday? Well, you’re in luck. Each week, I’ll be giving out FOUR wagers that I’m eyeing for the primetime Thursday Night Football matchup.

They’ll be:

  • One game line pick (Spread or Over/Under)
  • One yardage prop OVER
  • One yardage prop UNDER
  • One TD scorer

Do you disagree with one of my picks, or have a better one of your own? Of course you do. Feel free to let us know @RotoStJournal on Twitter or @Rotostreetjournal on Instagram, or hit me up @Seankeegs16 on Twitter. Let’s go!

Lines/odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and PrizePicks. If you’ve never played PrizePicks, it allows users to pick and combine two to five player props to win up to 10x on any entry. If you’re a player prop bettor who typically uses a sportsbook, sign up for PrizePicks using our link below to view and take advantage of their very, very generous lines. Plus, they’re giving away a Tom Brady free square for Week 1 to build your card around.

GAME TOTAL: UNDER 51.5 POINTS

The first game of the year brings with it a relatively high point total, with two high-powered offenses featuring MVP favorite Josh Allen and last year’s OPOY and fantasy WR1 Cooper Kupp. What’s easy to forget is how stout both teams are on defense. LA not only brings back three-time DPOY and helmet-swinging psychopath Aaron Donald but also other big names like Jalen Ramsey in the secondary and Bobby Wagner at linebacker.

Meanwhile, the Bills had the best defense in the NFL last season in terms of yards per game (272.8), passing yards per game (163), and points per game (17). Buffalo’s D may be even more formidable this year, with the additions of Von Miller (now facing the team he won a ring with last year), DaQuan Jones, and others to beef up an already impressive depth chart.

There have been conflicting reports about the status of Matthew Stafford‘s elbow throughout training camp, with the team downplaying the injury but outside sources speculating it could be a lingering problem all year long. Even if Stafford is at 100%, he has a tough test ahead of him in Week 1. Factor in Week 1 jitters and the pregame banner ceremony, and I’m expecting a slow start offensively for both teams. If you want some more action, I like the Q1 under as well.

DEVIN SINGLETARY UNDER 45.5 RUSHING YARDS

via PrizePicks

Devin Singletary has been the lead back in Buffalo for a couple of years now but has never had much of a chance to put up big numbers. Last year, that was due to 122 carries being poached by the combination of Zack Moss and Matt Breida, as well as Josh Allen‘s consistent presence in the run game (more on that later).

Although he was a fantasy league-winner down the stretch of last season, Singletary averaged roughly 11 carries per game, converting them into 870 yards (51.2 YPG) and 7 rushing TDs. Moss is still in the picture as the RB2 on the depth chart, and the Bills also added James Cook out of Georgia in the draft this year.

Cook’s role in the offense is unclear early, with Bills OC Ken Dorsey saying recently that it is “going to be something that just unfolds naturally over the course of a game,” but Cook showed some strong glimpses in his preseason action.

James Cook showing off the speed and breaking tackles 👀 (via @NFL) pic.twitter.com/RURfZ378Zv

— NFL Rookie Watch (@NFLRookieWatxh) August 20, 2022

Taking all of this into account as well as LA’s vaunted defense and a Bills team that looks best when Allen is making plays himself, I don’t think Singletary plays enough of a role to reach 46 yards on the ground.

JOSH ALLEN OVER 36.5 RUSHING YARDS

via PrizePicks

This one seems relatively straightforward to me. Allen is one of the more athletic QBs in the league and averaged just a hair under 45 rushing YPG last season. With the likes of Donald, Wagner, and others breaking through Buffalo’s offensive line, he’ll need to get out of the pocket to give his guys a chance to get open downfield against a strong secondary. He’s great at throwing on the move but has also made significant leaps over the past few years in knowing when to take off and gain yards with his legs.

I think Allen blows past this over/under and gives us a stress-free W on this prop.

ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN SCORER: DAWSON KNOX +170

Dawson Knox was second on the Bills with nine TD receptions last year, trailing only Stefon Diggs, who had 10. Knox was headed for a likely decline in production until last week when the Bills cut loose OJ Howard. Now, Knox is all alone on the depth chart with two tight ends who have a combined nine career receptions. He has a knack for getting open in the end zone and a clearly solid rapport with Allen. If you’re feeling really bold, he’s going off at +1300 for first TD scorer, but +170 anytime is enough for me.

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