Week 2 of this your NFL season treats us to two intriguing matchups. The first game has last season’s top seed in the AFC, the Tennessee Titans, hitting the road to take on the team many think will sit atop the conference heading into the playoffs, the Buffalo Bills.
Here is how numberFire ranks each team heading into tonight’s game using our nERD metric and Net Expected Points (NEP):
|Team||nERD||nERD Rank||Rush Off NEP Rank||Pass Off NEP Rank||Rush Def NEP Rank||Pass Def NEP Rank|
Inside the Standard Bets
Our model is giving a hefty edge to Bills, projecting them to win outright 72.4% of the time. However, we have them covering the 10.0-point spread only 36.5% of the time. At FanDuel Sportsbook, the Bills’ moneyline odds are -460 (implied probability of 82.1%), and their odds to cover the spread are set at -110 (52.4% implied).
Taking the Bills, either giving the points or straight up, means you have to pay a very steep price, and that’s something our model doesn’t like.
Like last week, our model said the value was on the underdog Seattle Seahawks, and that’s the thought again here. Taking the Titans with 10 points in the pocket at -110 odds (53.3% implied) is a two-star bet. The Titans winning outright (+360, 21.7% implied) is a one-star wager.
With the total, we have another two-star bet as we are going with the under on a 47.5-point line. Our model estimates a 61.5% chance we’ll see the under hit (-114 odds, 53.3% implied).
Player Prop Value Bets
The player projection model also has Stefon Diggs slated to beat his receiving yardage line (76.5), as we project him for 80.4 yards. Touchdown machine Gabriel Davis is trending toward not playing, which could mean more targets for Diggs.
The under is 10 for 18 for each of these teams since the start of 2021. Of the Bills’ nine home games over that span, the under has his six times.
With recent history and our model on the under, that makes it my favorite wager for this game, even if it’s not too fun to root against points.
This content was originally published here.