Jets vs. Jaguars Prop Bets for Thursday Night Football Include Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, and Garrett Wilson

If you’re planning to make NFL prop bets for this pivotal New York Jets vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Week 16 matchup on Thursday Night Football, then you’ve come to the right place.

We’ve analyzed the game’s highest-probability scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated and which could fall short of expectations. All prop bets are based on DraftKings Sportsbook, BetMGM, or FanDuel Sportsbook, where you can get a no-sweat first bet up to $1,000.

Top Jets vs. Jaguars Prop Bets To Target

The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.

These recommended bets assume a final score of roughly 27-20 Jets. There are two key variables when considering how relatively high-scoring this might be.

First, both teams are in must-win territory as the playoffs loom. A Jets victory would keep them in contention for a Wild Card berth, particularly if the Patriots lose this week. The Jets and Patriots are both 7-7, but New England would win their tiebreaker.

And since the Jets have beaten Miami already, a second victory over the currently 8-6 Dolphins in Week 18 would catapult New York into the postseason — provided the Jets win their other remaining games.

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As for the Jags, they’re one game behind the Titans and will face Tennessee again with a chance to claim the AFC South title. But a loss tonight would upend those plans, as Jacksonville would need Tennessee to lose one other remaining game to remain firmly in the playoff hunt.

The must-win nature of this contest for both teams should generate more risk-taking as the game proceeds, particularly if one team jumps out to a meaningful lead. Risk-taking might translate into more big-play attempts, leading to more scoring opportunities and/or turnovers.

This leads to the second key variable: the Jaguars’ rocky pass defense. While they’ve been relatively solid against the run, their D has surrendered the fourth most passing yards and fifth-fewest sacks. Some quarterbacks who’ve burned them include:

Jacksonville played each of these games on the road, where they’ve clearly struggled to contain sub-middling quarterbacks like Wentz, Ryan, and Tannehill. And in Goff’s case, the Lions’ QB racked up his second most passing yards on the season.

With that in mind, here are my recommended prop bets for several key players.

Scoring Prop Bets

As referenced above, one of these teams probably will get desperate by the second half. I’m expecting at least one of the offenses (like Jacksonville’s) to open up more, exposing them to more risks while also generating more scoring opportunities.

Meanwhile, the Jets have the firepower to push past Jacksonville, especially with Corey Davis on the mend. That might not seem like much. But Davis, Garrett Wilson, and Elijah Moore form the best WR corps the Jets have had in years. They should post 24+ on the Jags, with Jacksonville comfortably topping 16.

Zach Wilson Prop Bets

When it comes to Zach Wilson, there might be two types of people: those who believe he can develop into a franchise QB and those who’ve seen enough and want to move on.

I’m in the former camp — not because I know he’ll be really good, but because I believe he can be.

Wilson has only 21 NFL starts under his belt, having thrown for 3,930 yards while collecting 20 TDs and 19 turnovers. It took Justin Fields 16 to 17 starts before he finally turned a corner. It took Trevor Lawrence 18 to 19 starts. Even the great Josh Allen was sitting on 24 TDs and 22 turnovers in his first 15 starts.

Wilson had the misfortune of enduring a five-game stretch midseason against the Broncos, Packers, Bills, and Packers (twice). Yes, he struggled. And last weekend, facing an anemic Lions pass defense, Wilson bounced back.

Now he gets the Jaguars, whose pass defense isn’t much better than Detroit’s. Wilson is playing for a chance to keep playing. It’s that simple. Either he’ll rise or fall in a favorable matchup with his and the Jets’ season on the line.

I’m betting his talent will win the day.

Garrett Wilson Prop Bets

The Jets drafted rookie Garrett Wilson with the 10th overall pick, and he’s exceeded even the loftiest expectations. Wilson is tied for 10th (with Christian Kirk) in receiving yards with 966. Among wideouts with 50+ receptions, he’s seventh with 14.4 yards per catch.

Facing a defense yielding the league’s fourth most receiving yards, Wilson is primed for somewhere between a “good” day (5-65-0 receiving line) and an “incredible” day (8-140-2). Either way, he’s a great bet to exceed prop expectations.

Trevor Lawrence Prop Bets

If Jared Goff could throw for 252 yards in New York, surely Trevor Lawrence can crack 225. And that’s no knock on the resurgent Goff. It’s just that Lawrence has been locked in recently, and he has the playmakers to produce a decent enough baseline to crush his prop line.

This content was originally published here.

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