Why Jacksonville can cover the spread
The Jags have won six in a row and covered four straight games as playoff underdogs. And KC brings that wallet-draining streak of 2-11 ATS in conference games.
The Jaguars D line is tough and ranks in the Top 5 of several key pressure metrics. So they can get after Patrick Mahomes. The question is whether that’s good or bad to flush Mahomes from the pocket.
And if Kansas City’s red-defense continues to falter (they were second worst this season in allowing TDs), the Jaguars have the offense to stay close here. Don’t discount Coach Doug Pederson’s aggressive nature here, as he knows he probably cannot win by settling for field goals or conventional play calling.
Why Kansas City can cover the spread
The presumptive MVP almost always wins at home and almost always wins as favorite. But covering spread has been tougher. The Chiefs offense if varied and explosive and KC should be able to leg out a lead.
The risk, when the spread is 8.5 points, is garbage time scoring. But where the Chargers got ahead and seemed to lose its way, KC knows how to keep a rout going on their way to a fifth straight AFC title game.
Jaguars Chiefs Pick
Just making the playoffs felt like Jacksonville’s Super Bowl. Then rallying from 27-0 surely felt like their Super Bowl. We doubt they have much left in the emotional tank here after KC races to a lead. We play the Chiefs big.
Chiefs Jaguars Anytime TD Props
Coming soon as odds posted….
Jacksonville Kansas City Betting Trends
Chiefs 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS past 8 home playoff games as favorites
Jaguars have covered 4 straight as playoff dogs, winning SU twice
Jaguars are 4-22 SU in their last 26 games on the road
Jaguars have won 6 straight 5-1 ATS
Chiefs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against Jacksonville.
Chiefs are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 conference games
UNDER is 11-3 Kansas City’s last 14 games played on a Saturday.
UNDER is 8-1 past 9 times Jags were dogs of 8 or more points
However, the OVER is 8-3 Jacksonville’s last 11 games overall when playing as the underdog.
This content was originally published here.