Why Buffalo will cover the spread
KC’s pass defense is terrible and Buffalo can exploit it like few other teams. And with Josh Allen primed to scramble, it creates even more options for the Bills. We wonder if the Bills might not work the ground game early and often to try to keep Mahomes off the field and wear out the KC defense.
If that happens, the UNDER 54 could come into play. Buffalo is the superior team and can win easily here if the Chiefs defense doesn’t have a great day.
Why Kansas City will cover the spread
They almost always cover as underdogs and they have proven they can beat the Bills in the most difficult circumstances, giving up two go-ahead TDs in the final two minutes and still winning the AFC Divisional Playoff game in January.
KC almost always wins at home (26-5 SU) and almost always cover as underdogs. The Bills meanwhile have a weird trend developing where they lose in pre-bye-week games (past two seasons at Tennessee and Arizona). The Chiefs have a better shot if this is a shootout, but can that happen against the Bills defense?
Buffalo Kansas City Pick
The -2.5 is a tricky, almost baiting us to take the Chiefs. Let’s not take the bait. Buffalo is the better team and is motivated to cement their place as AFC favorites. Take Bills -2.5.
Kansas City Buffalo Anytime TD Prop Predictions
Coming soon after odds are posted
Kansas City Buffalo Betting Trends
Kansas City has never been a home dog when Patrick Mahomes is playing
Chiefs played 5 straight OVERs when regular season home dog since 2013, OVER is 9-2 Kansas City’s last 11 games as the underdog
Chiefs are 26-5 SU in their last 31 home games
Bills are 1-6 SU in their last 7 games played in Week 6.
Bills lost past 2 seasons before their bye week (@ Tennessee, @Arizona)
Chiefs are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games when playing as the underdog.
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