Bills vs. Packers odds, line, spread: Sunday Night Football picks, predictions from NFL model on 148-107 run – CBSSports.com

High-profile quarterbacks take center stage on Sunday evening in Week 8. The Buffalo Bills host the Green Bay Packers on Sunday Night Football, with Buffalo entering at 5-1 and Green Bay at 3-4. The Bills are led by MVP favorite Josh Allen, with the Packers led by four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers. Highmark Stadium hosts the game in Orchard Park in front of what projects to be a raucous crowd.

Kickoff is at 8:20 p.m. ET in Buffalo. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Bills as 10.5-point home favorites, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 47 in the latest Bills vs. Packers odds. Before you make any Packers vs. Bills picks, you need to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s advanced computer simulation model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 8 of the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 148-107 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. 

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Packers vs. Bills and just locked in its picks and NFL Week 8 predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Packers vs. Bills:

Featured Game | Buffalo Bills vs. Green Bay Packers

Why the Packers can cover

Green Bay matches up well against Buffalo’s passing attack. While the Bills are highly prolific with Allen, Stefon Diggs and company, the Packers lead the NFL in passing defense, giving up 168.9 yards per game. Green Bay is also in the top five of the league in allowing only six passing touchdowns, and opponents are averaging only 5.9 net yards per pass attempt. That strength against the pass leads the Packers to a top-eight mark in total defense, yielding only 308.4 yards per game, and Green Bay is in the top six of the NFL in third down rate allowed (30%), pressure rate (39%), red zone efficiency allowed (44.4%), and first downs allowed. 

Buffalo has 10 turnovers in only six games, including six lost fumbles, and the Bills have only three rushing touchdowns in 2022. On offense, the Packers have an established star Rodgers, the back-to-back MVP, and Green Bay is in the top 10 of the league in passing touchdowns, interceptions, and red zone efficiency. The Packers are also averaging 4.6 yards per carry with a solid duo of AJ Dillon and Aaron Jones at running back. See which team to back here.

Why the Bills can cover

With Allen at the helm, the Bills have arguably the best offense in the NFL, leading the league in total offense, third down efficiency, and passing yards with top-five marks in scoring offense, first downs, and passing touchdowns. Buffalo’s offense is elite by any description, but the Bills are also fantastic on defense. The Bills are leading the NFL in scoring defense, giving up only 13.5 points per game, and Buffalo also leads the league in allowing only 281.5 total yards per game. 

Buffalo is in the top five in points allowed per drive (1.35) and yards allowed per drive (28.2), and the Bills have the most interceptions (10) of any team in the league despite playing only six games. Buffalo is No. 1 in the league in rushing yards allowed (457) and yards per carry allowed (3.5), with top-five marks in turnovers created (13) and net yards allowed per pass attempt (5.5). Von Miller leads an excellent pass rush with six sacks, eight tackles for loss, and eight quarterback hits, and the Bills are facing a Packers offense that isn’t firing on all cylinders. Green Bay is scoring only 18.3 points per game and 1.53 points per drive, with the Packers landing below the NFL average in total yardage and third down efficiency (35.4%). See which team to back here.

How to make Bills vs. Packers picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Under on the total, with no rusher projected to reach 55 yards on the ground. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model’s SNF pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Packers vs. Bills on Sunday Night Football? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Packers vs. Bills spread you need to jump on Sunday, all from the model on a 148-107 roll on NFL picks, and find out.

This content was originally published here.

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