Bills vs. Bengals: Best Bets for Monday Night Football

The Cincinnati Bengals will host the Buffalo Bills at 8:30 p.m. EST at Paycor Stadium to wrap up Week 17. Note that the start of the game will be delayed 15 minutes this week, with the new kickoff time coming at 8:30 p.m. ET. The delay is happening so ESPN can accommodate the Rose Bowl, which kicks off at 5 p.m. ET on Monday with Penn State playing Utah.

In a matchup that could end up being a game-of-the-year candidate, two offensive powerhouses lock horns when the 12-3 Bills head to Cincinnati to take on the 11-4 Bengals, with playoff seedings on the line. A Buffalo win would put them in the driver’s seat for a first-round bye, while a Bengals win would lock up an AFC North title.

Bills @ Bengals Betting Odds

Bills vs. Bengals Betting Odds
Bills Bengals
Spread -1.5 1.5
Moneyline -122 104
Over/Under 49.5

Bills @ Bengals Best Bets

Buffalo Bills Team Total o24.5 (-125, BetMGM)

This total is a full point below some books and two full points below others. Though the Bengals have been remarkably stout in the run game since the return of defensive lineman DJ Reader, it has sometimes been for the sake of the passing game. Since Week 12, the Bengals rank 28th in passing yards allowed per game, ranking 23rd in passing EPA per play and 30th in explosive pass rate allowed. In contrast, the Bills‘ offense ranks in the top seven of each of those passing metrics and has the second-fewest turnovers per drive, an area where a lot of the Bengals’ success on defense is predicated.

The Bills have exceeded 24.5 points in nine games this season, and in five of their last seven. With a genuine chance of landing the number one seed if they pull off the victory on the road, I don’t see a scenario in which they take their foot off the gas tonight.

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Bills RB Devin Singletary u44.5 rushing yards (-110, FanDuel)

With DJ Reader coming off the did-not-practice list to return with the team on Saturday, the Bengals will receive a huge boost to the interior of their offensive line. Since Reader returned full-time in Week 12, the Bengals are fourth in rushing defense EPA and fourth in explosive run rate. Cincinnati held Rhamondre Stevenson to a 13-38 line, Rachaad White to 11-38, Leonard Fournette to 10-44, Nick Chubb to 14-34, and Derrick Henry to 17-38. Also, take into consideration James Cook, who has been seeing an increased workload the longer the season goes on, and we could see him take a big chunk of the backfield here on Monday Night Football.

There are several outs in which the under can hit, not least of which could be a negative game script against one of the only offenses in the league that can match Buffalo blow-for-blow.

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